{"id":51114,"date":"2025-08-04T08:01:41","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T01:01:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/?p=51114"},"modified":"2025-08-04T08:01:41","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T01:01:41","slug":"canadian-real-estate-2025-from-braking-to-a-cycle-of-selective-investment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/en\/canadian-real-estate-2025-from-braking-to-a-cycle-of-selective-investment\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian Real Estate 2025: From Braking to a Cycle of Selective Investment"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The <em>Emerging Trends in Real Estate\u00ae 2025<\/em> report by PwC and the Urban Land Institute shows that Canada\u2019s real estate market is shifting from a slowdown that lasted more than two years to a <strong>cycle of selectivity<\/strong>, where location, asset type, and financial capacity will determine opportunities.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Calgary<\/strong> stands out at the top of the outlook rankings thanks to a strong economy and rapid population growth. According to the Conference Board of Canada (CBoC), the city\u2019s real GDP is expected to rise from 1.1% in 2024 to <strong>2.5% in 2025<\/strong>. In the 12 months ending July 1, 2023, Calgary attracted over <strong>87,000 new residents<\/strong> from other provinces and abroad. The average rent for a two-bedroom apartment is projected at <strong>CAD 1,859\/month<\/strong> \u2013 lower than Vancouver (<strong>CAD 2,380<\/strong>) and Toronto (<strong>CAD 2,120<\/strong>). The city is also pushing ahead with office-to-residential conversions: an additional <strong>CAD 52.5 million<\/strong> has been allocated to a program offering up to <strong>CAD 75\/ft\u00b2<\/strong> in support, with 11 projects approved and the first 112 units delivered in April 2024.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/vipcondostoronto.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/stanley-condos-interior-suite.jpg\" alt=\"Midtown Toronto | VIP Condos Toronto\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>In <strong>Toronto<\/strong> and <strong>Vancouver<\/strong>, the condo segment is adjusting to rebalance supply and demand. In the Greater Toronto &amp; Hamilton area, unsold condo inventory reached <strong>25,893 units<\/strong> (mid-2024) \u2013 a new record; the number of units under construction fell to <strong>87,508<\/strong>, nearly 19,000 fewer than a year earlier. New condo prices remain significantly higher than resale units, combined with elevated borrowing and construction costs, slowing presales. Vancouver maintains a downtown office vacancy rate of <strong>10.8%<\/strong> \u2013 the lowest among major cities \u2013 but the industrial sector has slowed, with net rents down <strong>5.2%<\/strong> year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Transactions<\/strong> are in a \u201cprice discovery\u201d phase: total transaction value in the first half of 2024 fell <strong>50%<\/strong> compared to the same period in 2023 (<strong>25%<\/strong> decline if excluding one large deal). The bid-ask gap is narrowing, and anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to boost supply, especially from owners seeking to reduce debt or avoid costly refinancing.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Capital flows<\/strong> are also shifting: as domestic pension funds, insurers, and REITs reduce purchases, <strong>family offices<\/strong> and foreign investors are stepping in. U.S. FDI into Canada\u2019s real estate, rental, and leasing sectors rose <strong>15.3%<\/strong> between 2022 and 2023. Bankruptcies in this sector increased <strong>51%<\/strong> in the 12 months ending June 30, 2024, creating opportunities to acquire assets from restructuring deals.<\/p>\n<p>On <strong>housing supply<\/strong>, CMHC forecasts about <strong>232,000 housing starts<\/strong> in 2025 \u2013 higher than 2024 (~224,000) but well below the peak of 271,000 in 2021. To restore affordability, Canada will need an additional <strong>3.5 million homes<\/strong> by 2030 compared to the current trend.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><strong>City Snapshot \u2013 Canadian Real Estate 2025<\/strong><\/h3>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>City<\/th>\n<th>GDP Growth 2025 (CBoC)<\/th>\n<th>Housing \/ Market<\/th>\n<th>Office (Q2\/2024)<\/th>\n<th>Industrial (Q2\/2024)<\/th>\n<th>Highlights<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Calgary<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>2.5%<\/td>\n<td>2BR rent: CAD 1,859\/month (2024); in-migration ~27,000 domestic + &gt;60,000 international (12 months to 1\/7\/2023)<\/td>\n<td>Downtown vacancy 30.3%; office-to-residential conversion program: additional CAD 52.5m, up to CAD 75\/ft\u00b2 support; 11 projects approved, first 112 units delivered 4\/2024<\/td>\n<td>Vacancy 3.3%<\/td>\n<td>Ranked #1 in 2025 outlook survey<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Vancouver<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>2.6%<\/td>\n<td>2BR rent: CAD 2,580\/month (2025, highest in Canada)<\/td>\n<td>Downtown vacancy 10.8% (lowest among major cities)<\/td>\n<td>Net rent down 5.2% YoY; stable build-to-suit demand<\/td>\n<td>Density increases near transit hubs support development<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Toronto (GTA)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>2.7%<\/td>\n<td>Unsold condo inventory: 25,893 units; under construction: 87,508 units (mid-2024)<\/td>\n<td>Downtown vacancy 17.6%; AAA offices just 5.9%<\/td>\n<td>Vacancy 2.1%; first negative net absorption in 8 years<\/td>\n<td>Condo market adjusting, presales slowing<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Edmonton<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>2.7%<\/td>\n<td>2BR rent: CAD 1,481\/month (2024); in-migration 38,000 international + 16,000 interprovincial (12 months to 1\/7\/2023)<\/td>\n<td>Vacancy 20.6%<\/td>\n<td>Stable market; hub for energy sector services<\/td>\n<td>Home and rent prices remain competitive, strong demand<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Montreal<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>2.4%<\/td>\n<td>2023 housing starts at lowest since 2001; 2025 expected moderate recovery<\/td>\n<td>Vacancy 18.8%<\/td>\n<td>Industrial demand remains but pricing adjusting<\/td>\n<td>Retail real estate integrating wellness, entertainment, and mixed-use<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Winnipeg<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>2.6%<\/td>\n<td>Major retail redevelopments into mixed-use; new apartment towers and creative hub downtown<\/td>\n<td>Office vacancy: downtown 18.6%, suburban 10.3%<\/td>\n<td>Economic recovery supports additional industrial supply<\/td>\n<td>Downtown revitalization focusing on live-work spaces<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; The Emerging Trends in Real Estate\u00ae 2025 report by PwC and the Urban Land Institute shows that Canada\u2019s real estate market is shifting from a slowdown that lasted more than two years to a cycle of selectivity, where location, asset type, and financial capacity will determine opportunities. Calgary stands out at the top of &#8230; <a title=\"Canadian Real Estate 2025: From Braking to a Cycle of Selective Investment\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/en\/canadian-real-estate-2025-from-braking-to-a-cycle-of-selective-investment\/\">Read more<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Canadian Real Estate 2025: From Braking to a Cycle of Selective Investment<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":44544,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[955,93],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canada-suv","category-real-estate"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51114"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51114\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51117,"href":"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51114\/revisions\/51117"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44544"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/porticoandbridge.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}